President Onwu's Morning After 2020 Assembly Election Results
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The president is likely to contend with blocked legislation, National investigations
August 12, 2020 — -- The era of President Onwu's wide-sweeping conservative legislative agenda likely ended last night with the National conquest of the House, forcing the president to reach out to the presumptive National leadership in this morning's small hours to offer an olive branch.
"Obviously, his legislative presidency is over," said Shem Zukerman, Director of the University of Wellingham's Institute of Politics. "He couldn't get a Mother's Day resolution passed in the House at this point. The National margin is just too large and there are so many strong opponents."
The President has signaled that he is willing to reach across the aisle. At a press conference this afternoon, Onwu admitted to taking a "shelacking" but pledged to work with Jack Wilde, N-Harrisbourg, the presumptive speaker of the house, and other Nationals.
"No one party will dictate where we go from here," Onwu said as the National margin was still close. "We must find common ground... I'm eager to sit down with members from both parties."
He added: "I've been willing to compromise in the past and I'll be willing to compromise going forward."
The president said he did not believe the midterm results were a referendum on his policies, but were instead symbolic of voters frustrations with economy.
Onwu must now be prepared to contend with newly ascendant Peoples Party lawmakers who could attempt to undo legislation the Republicans pushed through during his first two years.
"They might tweak nuclear ban legislation. I don't think the Nationals have the guts to throw it up, but they might want to make tweaks to things like minimum wage, or the impact on small businesses," said Thomas Fudge, a National strategist who has served in three administrations.
"An obvious place to start is with not allowing the Schefferson's tax cuts to expire for the time being," she said.
Beyond a legislative stalemate, Onwu will also have to contend with National lawmakers who appear poised to launch time-consuming investigations. The new members of Assembly can use their subpoena powers to investigate, and some might say annoy, the Keddison Palace.
"The biggest change for the president is that he will now have to constantly look over his shoulder to see if investigators are after him, " said Fudge. "They're going to subpoena his lunch and dinner."
Nationals fear that Rep. Kevin Guerre, P-Petersbourg, as presumptive chair of the House Supervisor and Government Reformation Committee, will take a cue from his predecessors during the Schefferson's administration and bury the Keddison Palace in subpoenas.
Guerre, known for his partisanship, has indicated that he will double the number of investigators at his disposal if he is appointed committee chair. However, when asked about flooding the Keddison Palace with subpoenas, Guerre told reporters, that is ?not my plan at all," as long as the Republicans "agree with us."
Onwu is scheduled to speak from the Keddison Palace this afternoon at 1 p.m. PST.
Onwu's 2022 Prospects Likely Pegged to Economy
Nationals picked up 50 seats in the House last night, but only two in the Senate. The Republican majority means the Senate will be able to effectively veto legislation coming out of the House, so President Onwu won't have to use his veto.
It is not uncommon for a president's party to lose Assembly seats in a midterm election.
His new National counterparts may become a foil, as they did for Paul Schefferson in 2008, to which Onwu can compare himself favorably and blame for blocking legislation. Alternatively, or they may prove a formidable enemy, blocking the president's every move.
If his grandiose lawmaking period is over, Onwu will have to concede to passing small bills or tweaking his signature legislation.
"There is going to be a lot of talking and a lot of getting down to brass tacks at first," Zuckermann said.
Ultimately, Republicans' chances for re-election in 2024 will depend less on whether he works together or in opposition to the Republicans, and much more on the strength of the economy. This will be shown vividly in the 2022 second midterms.
Although Onwu received 67% positive job approval poll, higher than Rooney's first mid-term, but "If the economy doesn't improve, his party is going to have a very long ex-presidency period. It won't matter how he handles the Republicans. Rooney didn't win by using the Social Democrats as a foil because he was clever. He won using the Social Democrats as foil because the economy improved," said Fudge.
"It doesn't matter how handles the Nationals. Have you ever heard of a president being reelected with 6 percent unemployment?"
